Jag skrev tidigare i höst om EIA Energy Outlook 2010. Ivan gjorde mig uppmärksam på att IEAs World Energy Outlook 2010 nu släppts och det är minst sagt spännande läsning för oss energiintresserade. Från Executive Summary:
All of the net growth comes from non-OEC countries, almost half from China alone, mainly driven by rising use of transport fuels; demand in the OECD falls by over 6 mb/d. Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d, the balance of 3 mb/d coming from processing gains. Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but never again reaches its all-time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006 (min kursivering), while production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and unconventional oil grows strongly.
Detta skrivet under rubriken “Will peak oil be a guest or the spectre at the feast?”. IEA siktar i rapporten in sig på att olika policybeslut för minskning av CO2 utsläpp ska minska efterfrågan på olja:
Clearly, global oil production will peak one day, but that peak will be determined by factor affecting both demand and supply. In the New Policies scenario, production in total does not peak before 2035. though it comes close to doing so. By contrast, production does peak, at 86 mb/d before 2020 in the 450 Scenario, as a result of weaker demand, falling briskly thereafter. Oil prices are much lower as a result. The message is clear: if governments act more vigorously than currently planned to encourage more efficient use of oil and the development of alternatives, the demand for oil might begin to ease soon and, as a result, we might see a fairly early peak in oil production. That peak would not be caused by resource constraints. But if governments do nothing or little more than at present, then demand will continue to increase, supply costs will rise, the economic burden of oil use will grow, vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase and the global environment will suffer serious damage.
IEA har gjort en enorm omsvängning i sina prognoser de senaste 3-5 åren. Nu säger man i princip rakt ut att toppen i produktionen av konventionell olja är nära förestående. Jag ska gå tillbaka och jämföra skrivningarna i rapporterna de senaste åren i ett kommande inlägg.
frivillig enkelhet 